Right now (as of November 25, 2020), there are around three concoctions that independent (stockholder-dependent), pharmaceutical companies believe will be solutions to COVID-19. To be clear, the media is already labeling these potential solutions as vaccines. This is somewhat like “brainwashing,” “propaganda,” or “control” of they way that you are starting to perceive and believe that one or more of these are “vaccines.” If you don’t think critically, you will miss this opportunity to step back and do some deep thinking.
Right now, the FDA is being pushed to allow these pharmaceutical companies to release these solutions as “emergency vaccines.” The FDA supposedly will be announcing their decision around December 10, 2020. BUT THIS IS NOT CERTAIN, yet. The media is still touting these possible solutions already as “vaccines that could be made available as soon as late December, 2020.” As “emergency vaccines,” this just means that the FDA would be approving something, temporarily, because there is a danger if nothing is done, and for only people in very high to high risk situations. These people would be medical staff and emergency personnel, and then for the elderly (65+) & certain imuno-compromized people.
REMEMBER THOUGH, that the FDA would NOT be approving these as actual vaccines, yet. It is likely that the FDA will take up to 18 months to 2 years before ACTUALLY APPROVING any of these as vaccines. For example, if this regarded a new medicine for major depressive disorder, the medicine would not be available as an “emergency medicine,” and the medicine would not be released as medicine until the FDA reaches its final decision, which would likely still take up to 18 months to 2 years.
The FDA takes this time to ensure that independent researchers NOT invested in the outcome conduct what are called “confirmatory studies.” Otherwise, there would be an inherent bias, because the creators of a solution are not regarded as trustable to be the only ones that did the research. This would be a “researcher bias” in the realm of research, because of the literal, financial interest in the outcome. This is not to say that the solution won’t work, but this process is conducted for reasons of health and safety. Plus, too early of a release could be dangerous because no one knows the long-term effects. Historically, from start to finish, this would take many years of research and analysis.
Remember that even medicine that received approved by the FDA has still been taken off the market because of causing a number of deaths. These medicines that were eventually removed caused about the same or fewer deaths per year compared with the average number of deaths per year caused by the appropriate use of plain aspirin (acetylsalicylic acid) that has been around for many decades (a century?) with aspirin never having been removed by the FDA. Pharmaceutical companies spend heaps (yes, that’s an actual amount) of money researching medicines that don’t even make it to market. They make their money by being granted a certain period of time before any other pharmaceutical company is allowed to make a “generic” version of those very few medicines that actually do make it to market. This period is when the pharmaceutical company charges an extremely high price to make back the money they spent researching this drug and the drugs that failed to make it to market … and if wise, the money they will lose through being sued. To be fair to the pharmaceutical companies, this is a capitalist economy. That’s just how it works.
I am not trying to say that you are being duped into taking a vaccine (which would only be an “emergency vaccine” and not likely offered to you, anyway) that is dangerous to you. I don’t know all the facts. I don’t profess to know. I’m using this current event to identify a situation where it isn’t common for people to use critical thinking. I don’t have access to the research, and those research studies might not be published until after the FDA gives it the final approval. I heard Dr. Fauci talking on NPR, Wednesday, November 24th, touting that the research has been done INDEPENDENTLY (he was meaning “independent from the government”) and therefore it is trustable and the there will be no problems (such as the possibility of there being “long-term” health problems … perhaps the vaccine would have an annual, rapidly declining effectiveness rate that is unpredictably variable for different people, etc.). Dr. Fauci was irresponsible in making such statement, particularly based on his position with regard to the national discussion on immunity topics.
Perhaps you might have heard of this substance called “Agent Orange” that the USA military used during the Vietnam Conflict … but you might not know what it is and why it was used. Well, outside of the military, it was used as an herbicide. That means it causes leaves to die and fall from trees and plants.
The majority of the fighting in Vietnam happened in jungles, up to triple canopy jungle environments. That affected the conduct of operations, mainly because the soldiers just couldn’t see the enemy and couldn’t find where they were located and track their movements, particularly using the spy planes (the covert, SR-71 Blackbirds). But even our rescue helicopters had difficulty finding and getting to the wounded to bring them to safety.
“Agent Orange” was used to remove large areas of greenery hoping to reveal the enemy. It did not. Mainly, which we didn’t really find out until the very end and after we left, because the enemy was traveling through literal, underground tunnels that would stretch for miles, and even had ammunition bunkers, barracks, medical facilities, cooking/eating areas, and a whole lot more. They had been created before the USA entered, and before the colonial French decided to pull out. The French realized it was a bad area because they couldn’t see, find or track the enemy.
Well, the government of the usa authorized the use of this “solution to the problem.” Why? Again, I don’t know – I wasn’t there. And that information is likely burried anyway, regardless of if you think you read the answer in a book. Or are you still thinking the USA government is going to release the JFK Files?
Here’s the funny (no, not “hahaha” funny) part about “Agent Orange.” In the late 1990s, if not earlier, the VA “silently,” but finally addmitted that the USA used “Agent Orange” to such an extensive amount that if you were in the military and placed on the ground in Vietnam for just a single day, then you were considered to have had sufficiently harmful exposure. That harm ranges from multiple different diseases to multiple different forms of cancer. But not only for you, but for any of your offspring, as well. The government and the VA continue to make updates to that list of diseases, cancers, etc.
This is not a blog about politics, or warfare, but only about critical thinking. Let’s not get side-tracked. The use of that “Agent Orange” solution was just to demonstrate how the USA government (or any government) and it’s associated media will portray information the way they want you to choose to believe it … and believe that you did this willingly and without any form of coercion from anyone or anything else. Honestly, not at all unlike any commercial advertisement or ad placement you have ever seen in you entire life. Really. It’s no different … well, the consequences might be different, but the logical process is the same.
Now, about that very interesting COVID-19 Data …
To put it simply, there are people on opposing sides of the fence regarding data for someone “being counted if there’s just a trace amount,” “being regarded as a ‘case,'” and “being regarded as having died” directly relating to the COVID-19 virus. No, this is not a blog section about the gray areas, nor about what information is reported accurately or possibly with inflation.
On or around November 25, 2020, the website Military.com published some interesting numbers relating to COVID-19 and the military (https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/03/16/militarys-coronavirus-cases-latest-rundown.html, accessed November 27, 2020). Specifically:
- there have been 74,992 actual cases of soldiers being sick with COVID-19 (not just soldiers having tested positive) [Yes, you can test positive, and if not needing medical care, will NOT be considered a “case.”]
- only 11 of those soldiers who were regarded as actual “cases” had died
- mathematically, that is 1.5% (11 / 74,992 = 0.015) of the total number of actual cases had died
- there are approximately 1,304,418 active duty soldiers in USA military (https://www.statista.com/statistics/232330/us-military-force-numbers-by-service-branch-and-reserve-component/, accessed November 27, 2020)
- therefore, mathematically, that is 8.43558282208589e-4%* of the total, active duty military population (11 / 1,304,000 = 8.43558282208589e-6) of the total number of deaths in the military to the total population of military soldiers [*I think that’s 0.0000844% … and if I’m off by one decimal point, well, that number is still excruciatingly small]
These are very healthy people, but they do not live isolated in a bubble. Most live around and have interactions with people in cities, towns or areas just like where you live.
Now, as a comparison, I have the figures for the veteran population. This is a critical contrast because the VHA (Veterans Health Administration – the hospitals, clinics and retirement homes for already unhealthy and old veterans who need constant medical attention) refused [for excellent reasons] to provide face-to-face medical services unless absolutely necessary, and later for necessary tests (like x-ray, MRI, CT scan, and other essential tests that cannot wait) – and they even require fever testing at entrance for any other, necessary face-to-face interactions. They refused to provide services to suspected COVID-19 cases because they did not have the medical equipment necessary to treat COVID-19 cases, but nearby hospital facilities were already designated as COVID-19 treatment facilities did, and they took care of these people with fevers.
So, this population of veterans would be considered the moderate and above level of having an already compromised immunity.
I receive all my health care needs via telephone or telehealth. I’ve been there, though. It’s a ghost town. Veterans with fevers were not permitted to be inside the facilities, and those veterans who phoned and had symptoms were triaged over the phone and given care instructions … unless they were considered to have a compromised immune system based on prior medical conditions (but were then redirected to medical facilities with more suitable capability of working with COVID-19. [this was to limit the likelihood of staff and those already hospitalized (for non-COVID-19 conditions) from being exposed]
The numbers are remarkably different. Number of cases: approximately, but less than 100,000 – we will use the rounded up number. The number of deaths of these veterans is 4,580 (rounded up, to be conservative) with only 69 medical staff having died. Since we want to consider our theme of being conservative, I will keep the number of staff “cases” for our 100,000 “cases,” but exclude the staff deaths. That will make the percent estimate slightly higher (conservative), but not by that much. This would give us a ratio of 0.0458, or 4.58%.
Remember that the majority of veterans who receive their medical care from the VHA are people who cannot afford better, public health care, with a great many not having full-time employment, drug & alcohol abusers/addicts, homeless or otherwise unable to be independent. These people generally don’t eat healthfully, exercise, or really don’t (yet) have the desire to be independent. This isn’t judgement. I’ve been going to a VHA for 20+ years. I do have an understanding of this population, through experience.
With regard to ratio of number of deaths per number of actual cases, that’s a huge difference between 1.5% and 4.58%.
Healthy people who take reasonably good (or better) care of themselves and follow masking and distance protocols have a very low likelihood of dying, and will go through the course of symptoms associated with the flu, though for a little bit longer period of time.
The ratio of “cases” (not just testing positive) for the healthy population of military soldiers is 0.075 (74,992/1,304,000=0.075), or 7.5% … but only 0.015% of this 7.5% have died.
And considering this number of 11 deaths of 1,304,000 healthy people (active duty soldiers), that’s a ratio of 0.000011, or 0.0011% of healthy people. That number would be comparable to the general healthy population of civilians.
These contrasts should provide you with more reasonable numbers than what any government or media outlets are saying.
What is the take-away point?
If you are person who is known to be healthy and a good immune system, you have an excruciatingly low likelihood of dying from COVID-19. However, if you have a highly compromised immune system, then you need to take extra precautions and take care of yourself.
If that’s all you got from the 2nd part of this blog, well, then you might have missed the point. We are a society of people. We have neighbors across the street, in the neighborhood, in the city, State, etc. We have an obligation to them. And I don’t just mean to the healthy people who might be your friends, in which hanging out in the public is fine … because you are one of the healthy people. But we all have close family and friends, some who might live with us, who have some level of compromised immune system. Your friend might be young and healthy. Great! But that friend might have a close person who’s immunity is compromised. You could be a carrier without symptoms, and could transmit it to your friend. Your friend, without knowing or realizing it, transmits it to a close family member staying in the house because of being ill and not able to be independent.
Having received it from you, your friend unknowingly transmits COVID-19 to that close relative, who does not survive the infection.
The main points:
Really listen to the words that are used in the media and on social media.
Understand when your thinking could be compromised by the way other people speak, especially if these resources are thought by you or others to be influential.
Understand the processes (of how medication research, for example) happen, rather than just taking other people’s word.
People will misuse or abuse data to influence you.
The military data suggests that if you are a healthy individual, you have a very low likelihood of dying from COVID-19.
The veteran data suggests that if you have a compromised immune system, then your likelihood of dying from COVID-19 is 3.05 times higher.
The overall data suggests that we have a responsibility to everyone in society to take as many available and reasonable precaution to help those who have compromised immune systems. We might not have symptoms, but we could be carriers. We must recognize and acknowledge this, and act accordingly.
We don’t know what the future complications of this virus happens to be. Someone who was a “case” could still get sick a second, third or more times. We just don’t know, yet.
Vaccines are not perfect. We don’t know what the future of COVID-19 will be, or how much it will mutate … if it does. So, we don’t know how effective a vaccine will be.
We don’t know the potential harm of the vaccine. Could it impact some other aspect of our health in which the impact is not immediate? … a year into the future? Rushing medicine to market has proven to be dangerous in the past. There is a reason why research on medicine needs to be completed extensively, especially if it is going to be administered to such a high percent of the population.
